Insights

In summary, Powell doubled down on the Committee’s focus on a weakening labor market and its impact on the broader economy. He reiterated that the Committee will ensure one-time price increases driven by tariffs do not evolve into a sustained inflationary process and reaffirmed its commitment to keeping inflation expectations anchored. With the announcement of the end of quantitative tightening on December 1, the Fed has fully aligned its policy tools toward a looser monetary stance. The larger overall balance sheet, combined with the continued conversion of roughly $2 trillion in agency-backed MBS into Treasury securities, will give the Fed greater influence over longer-term rates. By extending the maturity of securities on its balance sheet, the Fed can place downward pressure on longer-term yields, stimulating credit and overall demand more effectively……..Read more

In summary, Powell emphasized the committee’s recent shift toward focusing policy responses on a weakening labor market, noting that the balance of risks to the Fed’s dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability has shifted.  This signals that the committee is currently more concerned about employment drifting further from its goal than about inflation.  As the Fed moves its policy rate toward what it considers a more neutral level, it has also decided to continue gradually reducing its balance sheet with 5 billion in monthly Treasury runoff and 35 billion in MBS runoff through QT (Quantitative Tightening)…….Read more

In summary, Powell defended the committee’s decision to hold rates steady at this meeting by noting that employment is at or near maximum levels, while inflation remains slightly above target, even in the face of dissent from two Federal Reserve Board governors.As businesses gain clarity on the final level of tariffs, they will, at some point, pass those price increases on to consumers.  With employment already at what most economists would consider ‘full’ or ‘maximum’ employment, the Fed may soon confront the very scenario……Read more

In summary, Powell emphasized that the economy is currently in a solid position, with low unemployment (4.2%), encouraging inflation readings over the past three months, and 12-month PCE inflation at 2.3% as of May. While GDP growth remains positive, it is expected to slow. Taken together, these factors support the Fed’s wait-and-see approach, allowing more time to assess the ultimate size and impact of the tariffs on inflation and the broader economy…..Read more

In summary, the Fed remains in a “wait-and-see” mode, with its policy stance remaining moderately restrictive.  While the Fed is still on hold, it believes that the current stance of monetary policy is flexible enough to be adjusted in response to future deviations from its dual mandate. Notably, the Fed has more room to maneuver….Read more

In summary, Powell emphasized the heightened uncertainty surrounding the future economic impact of the new administration’s policies on trade, immigration, regulation, and fiscal policy.  He noted that while sentiment has turned negative, this shift has not yet appeared in hard data.  The economy remains on solid footing, supported by low and stable unemployment at 4.1%, real GDP growth of approximately 2%, and headline PCE inflation at 2.5%….Read more

CAPATA Financial’s take on today’s FOMC press conference and announcement: In summary, Powell deemphasized the committee’s recent shift toward focusing policy responses on a potential weakening in the labor market, instead highlighting that unemployment remains low and stable. This shift signals that the committee is currently more concerned about inflation either rising further or failing…Read more

CAPATA Financial’s take on today’s FOMC press conference and announcement: In summary, both the SEP and the press conference were more hawkish than many market participants had anticipated. The committee indicated they are now pricing in two rate cuts for next year…Read more

CAPATA Financials’ take on today’s FOMC press conference and announcement: In summary, Powell highlighted the Fed’s focus on its maximum employment mandate and broader macroeconomic stability over concerns of persistent inflation during the press conference. The key shift occurred when Powell discussed “recalibrating policy,”…Read more